The first step in preparing for hazards is to conduct a local risk assessment, which helps identify the potential impacts of hazards on a community’s physical, social, economic, and environmental assets. When done correctly, the assessment helps decision makers and stakeholders understand the most locally significant hazards and unique risks, including current and possible future vulnerabilities. Just as important, the risk assessment supports the development of mitigation measures to reduce future risk. While specific approaches may vary depending on available capabilities and resources, the outcome, conclusion, or end goal of any meaningful risk assessment should be implementation of the community’s risk reduction and mitigation strategies.
The FEMA-Recommended Steps for Risk Assessment
Since 2001, more than 27,000 communities across the United States have conducted local risk assessments in compliance with federal regulations per the Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000. Although there are many methods to identify and assess local hazard risks, most generally follow the same key steps and result in similar types of information. The current standard process typically used by Colorado communities follows guidelines issued by FEMA and the Colorado Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. There are four recommended steps, as described below. Detailed guidance for completing each step is provided in FEMA’s Local Mitigation Planning Handbook (2013).
- Step 1: Describe Hazards: Identify hazards that may affect the community. Describe the type, location, extent, previous occurrences, and probability of future events.
- Step 2: Identify Community Assets: Identify the community’s assets at risk to hazards. Assets may be categorized generally as people, economy, built environment, and natural environment.
- Step 3: Analyze Risks: Evaluate vulnerable assets, describing potential impacts and estimating losses for each hazard through exposure analysis, historical analysis, and/or scenario analysis.
- Step 4: Summarize Vulnerability: Document and summarize the community’s most significant hazard risks and vulnerabilities in order to inform the mitigation strategy.
Involving Everyone in Risk Assessment
Identifying local hazards and assessing risk requires input from a number of stakeholders and data from a variety of sources. This will include plans and personnel that might not immediately come to mind.
A collaborative, multi-sector, inclusive process is necessary. For example, a risk assessment should engage fire service and emergency managers, community planners, city engineers, law enforcement, regulators, natural resource and/or hazard experts (geologists, foresters, hydrologists, floodplain managers, fire behavior analysts, etc.), GIS specialists, community leaders, local residents, community organizations, and others. Similarly, data sources may include the Local Hazard Mitigation Plan, emergency management plan, comprehensive/master plan, hazard-specific plans and historical data, critical infrastructure plans, census information, and any other resources that help describe the hazard and identify community assets (or “values at risk”).
Some information is not up for debate—historical analyses of flood or fire, for example, is factual. Other inputs, including values and estimated losses, can become more subjective. While finding consensus may be difficult, the process of engaging multiple stakeholders ensures that everyone better understands the risk assessment outcomes and is better prepared to help prioritize mitigation efforts. Building these relationships before a disaster occurs will also pay dividends during and after the disaster.